The municipal election is almost over. By the end of the day we will know who will be Ottawa’s mayor for the next 4 years and the make-up of the new City Council. This is as good a time as any to share my highly subjective and loosely informed election takes, also known as “educated guesses.”
Take 1: Mark Sutcliffe will win in a photo-finish
The two main mayoral candidates, Mark Sutcliffe and Catherine McKenney, are nose-to-nose in surveys. I’m predicting a Sutcliffe photo finish.
I live in Stittsville, a west end suburb of Ottawa where people have been electing Pierre Poilièvre as their federal MP since he was a fetus. There hasn’t been much of a mayoral race in Stittsville — what Stittsville wants is what Mark Sutcliffe promises: low taxes, cuts to social services (i.e. “efficiencies”) and more investments in the type of amenities that homeowners appreciate, such as roads and policing.
3 months ago I predicted an easy Sutcliffe win. But Catherine McKenney ran a steady campaign and focused campaign. They didn’t try to beat Sutcliffe and Chiarelli at their own game: they knew they were selling a new vision for Ottawa and they stuck to it. They largely avoided the trap of arguing against the status quo, which surprised me given the amount of vitriol they otherwise heaped on Jim Watson during the term of Council. I don’t know who coached McKenney out of their anti-Watson ticks but they did an amazing job.
From a bird’s eye view, Sutcliffe’s campaign was often reacting to McKenney’s platform, which tends to show who has the momentum. The east end suburbs of Ottawa are similar to Stittsville (west) and Barhaven (south) demographically and socio-economically, but they tend to skew more progressive, possibly as a remnant of their French-Canadian origins. There is a noticeable mayoral race in the east-end suburbs that we haven’t seen in the west and south ends of town. I have not visited the Kingdoms of Barrhaven and the Rural South lately but based on their federal and provincial voting habits, I predict that Sutcliffe will win easily in those parts as well.
3 weeks ago, I predicted that Bob Chiarelli would take enough votes from Sutcliffe to allow a McKenney win. McKenney cannot win on urban votes only. There are simply too many people living in the suburbs where progressive ideas go to die in a Big Box parking lot. The only way to victory for McKenney is a decisive win inside the Greenbelt (which is a given) plus a significant sprinkle of disgruntled votes from the suburbs. McKenney cannot eke out enough suburban votes without a measurable vote split between Sutcliffe and Chiarelli.
Take 2: Candidate endorsements by incumbent City Councillors are not going to help improve the tone at City Hall
A municipal campaign well-run is a shit-load of work, even for an incumbent. My life partner is a municipal candidate and all I can say is that campaigning is a full time job tacked on to a full time job. That’s why I look at incumbent Councillors like Shawn Menard – who find the time to drop in municipal campaign events outside of their wards – with a mix of envy and eye roll. It must be nice to have it in the bag like this.
Beyond the obvious time commitment, you have to wonder about the sincerity of municipal councillors who proclaim with one side of their mouth to want a more civil tone at City Hall and campaign actively against one of their colleagues with the other. What I know from working 4 years alongside City Councillors is that relationships matter more than platform when it comes to the art of governance. When you put the platform ahead of the relationship, you’re in for an uphill battle.
Take 3: Same goes for media outlets
I still don’t understand how a media outlet endorsing a candidate improves democracy. If anything, it just confirms the populist narrative that the mainstream media cannot be trusted to hold politicians to account.
Take 4: All the incumbents are coming back, except maybe Allan Hubley
Allan Hubley in Kanata South won his last mandate by a narrow margin and is now facing three extremely capable women for re-election. He is the only incumbent who might be in danger of losing, although the possibility of a vote split between Rouba Fattal, Bina Shah and Erin Coffin is real. I wish these three women had agreed to throw only one hat in the ring. Oh well.
Take 5: If elected, Catherine McKenney will have to seek consensus around the Council table. Sutcliffe will not.
Regardless of your platform preference, if you are hoping for a more collaborative Council, vote for Catherine McKenney. Even if you don’t want bike lanes and fare-free transit. Here’s the thing: in Ottawa, the mayor has but one vote. When I hear mayoral debate moderators ask candidates about “Your platform…” I always wince. In reality, the mayor can scream FREE TRANSIT or LOW TAXES until they are blue in the face, if the majority of City Council is not on board it will go nowhere. The Mayor doesn’t direct City Staff to freeze taxes or build bike lanes, Council does. The make-up of Council will have more influence on the next 4 years than the mayor will.
The reality of Ottawa City Hall is that there are more suburban and rural wards than urban ones. If elected, Mark Sutcliffe will be able to lead the City by securing suburban and rural votes just like Jim Watson did. He will not need the buy-in of urban councillors, just like Jim Watson did not. Catherine McKenney on the other hand will have no choice but to reach out to suburban and rural Councillors to achieve their vision for the City. If they alienate suburban and rural Councillors like they did during the last term of Council, they will not build a single inch of additional sidewalk.
So in summary:
Odds are that Mark Sutcliffe will win, unless Chiarelli throws a wrench in the conservative vote.
All incumbents will be reelected, except for Hubley maybe.